On Nov. 28, a shadow emerged from the depths of the South China Sea, not far from the shores of the Philippines. It was the Russian Kilo-class submarine RS Ufa, an underwater vessel nicknamed the “Black Hole” by the US Navy for its stealth capabilities, surfacing within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around 80 nautical miles west of Cape Calavite in Occidental Mindoro. The Philippine Navy, alerted to the submarine’s presence by their own intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, quickly scrambled the warship BRP Jose Rizal (FF150) and four aircraft to monitor the situation.
While radio contact with the RS Ufa confirmed the submarine’s identity and seemingly benign intentions of transiting to Vladivostok after an exercise with the Royal Malaysian Navy, the incident sent ripples of concern through the Philippine defence establishment. The presence of two Russian support vessels nearby, possibly for refuelling or minor repairs, further underlined the complexity of the encounter. Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, the Philippine Navy’s spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, admitted that the Navy’s ability to detect underwater threats remained “modest” compared to their proficiency in tracking surface vessels.
The surfacing of the Russian submarine has reignited an ongoing debate in the Philippines about the country’s need for a credible submarine force and enhanced anti-submarine warfare capabilities. While the Philippine Navy doesn’t view the incident as overtly hostile, the fact that the RS Ufa could have been operating undetected within the Philippines’ EEZ for an unknown period underscores a critical vulnerability. This is particularly significant given the increasing naval activity of major powers in the region, and the Philippines’ ongoing maritime disputes.
The Philippines’ pursuit of submarines is not new. Plans were approved in 2019 under then-President Rodrigo Duterte but were put on hold due to the economic strain of the COVID-19 pandemic. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. revived the submarine acquisition program in 2023, but it remains in the planning stages, with priority given to developing anti-submarine capabilities in the meantime. The Philippine Navy is currently focused on modernising its fleet with new corvettes, frigates and offshore patrol vessels, many of which will have some degree of anti-submarine capability. Proposals for two more corvettes or frigates specifically equipped for anti-submarine warfare have also been submitted.
The recent incident will likely accelerate the Philippines’ efforts to acquire submarines, a capability many see as essential to safeguarding the nation’s maritime interests. AFP chief General Romeo Brawner Jr. has indicated that the program, which could cost between P80 billion and P110 billion, would likely involve diesel-electric submarines similar to the Russian Kilo-class. However, acquiring submarines is more than just buying hardware; it requires establishing training programs for crews, developing maintenance facilities, and building the necessary infrastructure to support a submarine force. The Philippine Navy is also exploring a broader program to enhance its undersea warfare capabilities, which could include sound surveillance systems and other technologies designed to detect submerged submarines.
The RS Ufa’s passage through the Philippines’ EEZ, while permissible under UNCLOS, serves as a stark reminder of the nation’s vulnerability to undersea threats. The incident, coming amidst heightened regional tensions, is likely to have lasting repercussions on the Philippines’ naval defence posture, pushing the archipelago nation to finally take the plunge into the depths of submarine warfare.