The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, a highly advanced stealth fighter jet, represents a substantial and often debated military acquisition for any nation. Presently, both Portugal and Canada are at a critical juncture, re-evaluating their strategies concerning the procurement of these aircraft manufactured in the United States. These reassessments are occurring within a dynamic environment, influenced by evolving geopolitical landscapes and internal political and economic factors.
Regarding Portugal, the Minister of Defence and leader of the CDS party, Nuno Melo, has recently acknowledged that his party is considering the purchase of European fighter jets in addition to the F-35. In an interview with PÚBLICO/Renascença, Melo stated that “the world has already changed”. Portugal’s reassessment of its defence options arises partly from concerns about the predictability of the United States as an ally, particularly given recent developments in US foreign policy. Melo emphasised that the recent stance of the United States within NATO and on the international geo-strategic stage necessitates a careful evaluation of the most suitable options. He stressed the importance of having confidence that allies will support Portugal in all circumstances. The elections in the USA and the stated positions of the U.S. President and Secretary of Defense must also be considered by Europe and Portugal. There are anxieties that this previously consistently predictable ally could impose restrictions on the use, maintenance, and components of the F-35, affecting the assurance that the aircraft will remain operational across all types of scenarios.
Minister Melo indicated that several alternatives require consideration, specifically those within the context of European production, while also taking into account the potential benefits these options might offer to the Portuguese economy. Portugal’s existing fleet of F-16 aircraft is approaching the end of its operational life, making their replacement essential. While the Portuguese Air Force desires the F-35 as the successor to the F-16, the evolving geopolitical context is prompting a wider examination of alternatives.
In the case of Canada, Defence Minister Bill Blair announced that Canada is “actively looking at potential alternatives to the U.S.-built F-35 stealth fighter”. He stated that discussions will be held with competing aircraft manufacturers. This announcement followed just a day after Portugal indicated its potential change of course regarding the F-35 acquisition plan. Canada’s reconsideration is taking place amidst a “bruising political fight with the Trump administration over tariffs and threats from the American president to annex Canada by economic force”. Comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump about Canada have led both Canadians and the government to rethink conducting business with the Americans. There has been “a groundswell of support among Canadians to kill the $19-billion purchase and find aircraft other than those manufactured and maintained in the United States”. Despite years of delays, the Liberal government signed a contract with Lockheed Martin in June 2023 to procure 88 F-35 jets, and payment for the initial 16 aircraft has already been made. Blair is suggesting the possibility of accepting the first F-35 deliveries while fulfilling the remainder of the fleet with aircraft from European suppliers, such as the Swedish-built Saab Gripen, which was the second-place contender in the competition.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has instructed Minister Blair to investigate opportunities for assembling fighter jets in Canada. The Swedish proposal from Saab Gripen included the promise that assembly would occur in Canada, along with a transfer of intellectual property, enabling domestic maintenance of the aircraft. This contrasts with the F-35, where major maintenance, overhaul, and software upgrades are performed in the United States. The Canadian Air Force has historically resisted the notion of operating a mixed fleet of fighter jets, a practice they discontinued in the 1980s following the purchase of the current CF-18s. Defence planners have long maintained that managing two different training regimes, separate hangars and infrastructure, and a distinct supply chain would be excessively costly. In response to Portugal’s potential withdrawal and its impact on Canada, Lockheed Martin stated that they “value our strong partnership and history with the Royal Canadian Air Force and looks forward to continuing that partnership into the future”. They also noted that foreign military sales are government-to-government transactions, suggesting that further inquiries should be directed to the U.S. or the respective customer governments. The expense of potentially withdrawing from the F-35 contract remains uncertain, as some form of contract penalty would likely apply. Lockheed Martin also addressed online misinformation, stating that they provide all system infrastructure and data required for all F-35 customers to sustain the aircraft and denied the existence of a “kill switch”. Canadian aerospace companies are part of the F-35’s supply chain, contributing $1.3 billion to Canada’s economy between 1997 and 2021. This economic factor is another consideration in any potential withdrawal from the contract.
Despite their geographical separation, both Portugal and Canada share a concern regarding their defence procurement strategies in relation to the United States. A key common theme is the question of the United States’ reliability and predictability as a defence partner, particularly given recent political developments, including the policies and rhetoric of the Trump administration. Both nations are also considering European-made alternatives, potentially driven by a desire for greater strategic autonomy, economic benefits through domestic production or offsets, and more predictable long-term partnerships. However, there are differences in their current positions; Canada has a firm contract in place for the F-35, with initial payments made, making a full withdrawal more complex, while Portugal’s considerations appear to be in an earlier exploratory stage. In both cases, there is an interplay between the strategic requirements identified by their respective Air Forces, which in Canada’s case initially favoured the F-35, and the broader political and economic factors influencing governmental decision-making.
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