In an updated research report by RAND, experts have highlighted the vulnerability of Taiwan to resist a potential Chinese attack by up to 90 days. The report focuses on assessing the country’s capacity to resist a large-scale military assault, stressing the importance of key variables such as political leadership, social cohesion, military effectiveness, durability, and potential military intervention by the United States.
Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Analysts have identified four critical factors for evaluating Taiwan’s ability to withstand a high-end attack. These factors include the quality and strength of political leadership, the degree of social cohesion, military effectiveness, and durability in managing and sustaining the economic and human costs of conflict. However, the study suggests that Taiwan’s political leadership and social cohesion should be regarded as primary factors in determining its capacity to resist an attack, with the other variables seen as of secondary importance.
Despite having fewer armaments and troops compared to China, Taiwan’s military’s combat effectiveness plays a crucial role. The report indicates that even if Taiwan improves its military capabilities, China’s vast resources would likely enable its military advantage to continue growing. The impact of severe casualties and economic losses in a major war would have mixed consequences. While initially, the public might rally around the national leadership and support resistance against China, the long-term costs of conflict could erode public support for prolonged warfare.
The study emphasizes that due to Taiwan’s military disadvantages and low durability, successfully withstanding a large-scale Chinese attack would require military intervention by the United States. While a well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able to mount a determined resistance, China’s significant advantage in military resources would ultimately lead to the subjugation of the island without robust U.S. military intervention.
In light of the report’s findings, the authors put forth several recommendations. They suggest that U.S. officials should continue assisting Taiwan in strengthening its military capabilities, including the quality of platforms and weapons, troop skills, force integration, and professional autonomy. These improvements could enhance the lethality of Taiwan’s forces, instill confidence in its defenses, and serve as a deterrent to China. However, the deepening military advantage of China suggests that U.S. intervention will remain necessary to deter or defeat a potential Chinese attack.
Additionally, the report emphasizes the importance of countering Chinese information operations and economic coercion. While Taiwan is generally better positioned to counter such non-war tactics, U.S. support in these efforts remains crucial. Chinese authorities frequently employ these methods as a low-risk way to advance their goals, but they have thus far achieved limited success in Taiwan.
Lastly, the report underscores that even if Taiwan possesses strong political leadership, social cohesion, and an effective military against China, U.S. military intervention would still be necessary for Taiwan to withstand a major attack. The speed, clarity, and credibility of any promised U.S. military support would play a critical role in sustaining Taiwan’s ability to resist.
In conclusion, the research report sheds light on Taiwan’s vulnerability to a potential Chinese attack within a 90-day timeframe. It stresses the importance of Taiwan’s political leadership, social cohesion, and military effectiveness, while also highlighting the need for U.S. support and intervention. As tensions continue to simmer between China and Taiwan, a comprehensive understanding of Taiwan’s capacity to resist a large-scale military assault becomes vital for U.S. decision-makers and planners in effectively anticipating and responding to such a scenario.
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