Christopher Stone, the former Special Assistant to the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, has argued that the United States should develop its own fractional orbital bombardment systems (F/OBS) to counter China’s advances in this field of space weaponry.
David Neyland, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
The demonstration of a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) by Beijing in August 2021 raised concerns about China’s ability to attack the US and its allies, as these systems are designed to overcome U.S. defense systems. The combination of the HGV and F/OBS exploits weaknesses in U.S. space surveillance, missile warning, and defense systems, as it can re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere in an area with gaps in the surveillance coverage at hypersonic speeds and fly low to avoid radar systems. This means that the threat would not be detected until it is too late. This capability could provide China with an almost impenetrable anti-access system that could be used as a credible deterrent against US intervention in defense of its allies such as Taiwan, Australia, and Japan.
The author suggests that the U.S. must take action to counter this threat by leveraging the capabilities of its commercial space sector to rapidly develop, test, and deploy its own F/OBS system. This could serve as a deterrent against attack on Taiwan or Japan and could also provide the means to penetrate China’s integrated air defense systems and anti-ship systems, allowing for closer air and naval operations in support of these countries.
The article suggests that for decades, the US has attempted to avoid being perceived as an aggressor in space but has also suffered from vulnerability in its space systems as a result. The Chinese have now raised the threat level to the point where simply providing space support services is insufficient for success in a high-end conflict in the Pacific. The U.S. must aim for an initial capability of space-to-ground via a F/OBS system in the near term and seek to deploy a system that constantly holds adversary forces at risk from space in the long term.
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