A new report by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) titled “Swarms Over the Strait” examines the evolving role of drones in potential conflicts within the Indo-Pacific, particularly a scenario involving China and Taiwan. The report analyzes recent wars with drone use (Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine) and emphasizes the need for the United States and Taiwan to adapt their drone strategies for a large-scale conflict.
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Drones: Evolution, Not Revolution
The report argues that while drones have significantly impacted modern warfare, they haven’t fundamentally changed it. They are seen as an extension of existing tactics and require integration with traditional military forces. The study by Stacie Pettyjohn, Hannah Dennis, and Molly Campbell finds that drone proliferation has impacted recent conflicts, but these conflicts also highlight limitations. A companion report, “Evolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine,” by Pettyjohn, underscores this point, arguing that Ukraine’s pioneering drone tactics were met with rapid Russian adaptation and drone production that Ukraine couldn’t match.
Geography Matters: Long Range for the U.S.
The report highlights a key challenge for the US – the vast distances of the Indo-Pacific. The cheaper, shorter-range drones used in previous conflicts may not be suitable. The CNAS study recommends the US acquire long-range, high-endurance drones that can perform essential missions in the region.
China’s Potential Drone Advantage
The report suggests China currently possesses a larger drone fleet, potentially giving them an advantage in a conflict over Taiwan. This underscores the urgency for the US and Taiwan to close this gap.
Recommendations for the U.S.
- A Diverse Drone Arsenal: The U.S. needs a diverse fleet of drones, including long-range options for target acquisition and strike, lower-cost systems, and stealthy drones for contested airspace. The report also recommends investing in autonomous kamikaze drones for attacking ships, potentially overwhelming Chinese naval defenses.
- Pre-positioning Drones in Taiwan: The report recommends exploring the idea of pre-positioning short- and medium-range drones in Taiwan. Smaller drones face challenges with deployment time and distance, especially once a conflict has started. This would involve committing valuable transport assets and facing considerable risks during deployment amidst hostilities. However, the potential operational advantages of this strategic move must be balanced carefully against the geopolitical risks involved.
- Developing Tactics and Training: The U.S. needs to develop specific drone tactics for the Indo-Pacific environment, focusing on integrating drones with crewed aircraft and ensuring drone survivability. This necessitates training a large number of skilled drone pilots who can operate alongside traditional aircrews.
- Counter-Drone Capabilities: Investing in robust air defenses and electronic warfare (EW) systems is crucial to counter China’s potential drone swarms. The report suggests exploring cost-effective solutions, repurposing existing technologies like the Vampire system used in Ukraine, and considering gun and cannon-based systems for faster deployment.
- Industrial Base and Exports: Strengthening the U.S. drone industry to meet wartime production demands is vital. The report recommends collaboration with U.S. industry to build the commercial and military drone industrial base for surge capacity. Additionally, the report suggests reforming drone export controls to equip allies with necessary technologies.
Recommendations for Taiwan
- Focus on Affordable Drones: Taiwan should prioritize developing and acquiring large numbers of cheap, short- and medium-range drones, including kamikaze drones for close air support. Underwater drones and drone boats are recommended to bolster Taiwan’s coastal defenses.
- Integration with Ground Forces: Integrating drones with artillery and missile units is crucial to maximize their effectiveness. The report recommends developing battle management software to facilitate information sharing and targeting between drones and ground-based fires units.
- Training and Collaboration: Building a robust training program for drone operators and exploring ways to share targeting information with allies (like the U.S.) are seen as critical for Taiwan’s defense.
- Counter-Drone Defenses: Investing in layered air defenses and EW systems to counter potential Chinese drone attacks is essential.
The Evolving Landscape of Drone Warfare
“Swarms Over the Strait” underscores the growing importance of drones in a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The report offers a road map for the U.S. and Taiwan to adapt their strategies, focusing on affordability, scalability, and integration of drones with other military capabilities.
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