South Korea is contemplating a major shift in policy by providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, including the prospect of training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, either in South Korea or by South Korean instructors. This potential move is a direct response to North Korea’s increasing military support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a development that has raised considerable concern in Seoul.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has previously stated that South Korea’s willingness to provide lethal aid would be contingent on the extent of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. Recent intelligence reports, however, suggest that this cooperation has reached a new level. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) has confirmed that North Korea has already started sending troops to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.
The NIS estimates that an initial batch of 1,500 North Korean troops has arrived in Russia, with anonymous sources indicating that the final figure could reach 12,000. Ukraine’s own intelligence sources corroborate these reports, claiming that Russia is actively forming military units composed of North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian intelligence estimates that nearly 11,000 North Korean infantry troops are currently training in eastern Russia, with deployment to Ukraine expected by 1 November.
The deployment of North Korean troops is not the only evidence of Pyongyang’s military support for Moscow. The NIS has also revealed that North Korea has shipped a significant amount of military equipment to Russia, including shells, missiles, and anti-armour rockets. Aerial photographs released by the NIS show hundreds of North Korean troops gathered at Russian military bases in Ussuriysk and Khabarovsk, as well as a Russian ship at North Korea’s Chongjin port, allegedly loading North Korean soldiers.
This growing military partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow has alarmed Seoul, prompting the consideration of defensive military aid for Ukraine. Ukraine has specifically requested the KM-SAM Block 2 (“Korean Patriot”), a sophisticated air defence system designed to counter missile and air attacks. With Ukraine facing constant missile barrages and air raids, the need for effective air defence systems is critical. South Korea is recognised as a leading developer and producer of advanced missile and aircraft interception systems, making it a crucial potential supplier for Ukraine.
In addition to the KM-SAM Block 2, South Korea is also considering providing other air defence systems, such as the KM-SAM Block 1 and KP-SAM. Ukraine has also requested various types of drones, including those with jamming capabilities and jamming-resistant models, as well as portable anti-drone guns.
The provision of lethal weaponry is also under consideration, with the potential list including the K2 Black Panther tank, the K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzer, the K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launcher, and the KTSSM (Korean Tactical Surface-to-Surface Missile). The K2 and K9 systems, already in service with the South Korean military, could be rapidly produced and delivered if approved. South Korea has also previously provided 500,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition to the United States, which were subsequently transferred to Ukraine. While the provision of the KTSSM is deemed feasible without violating international agreements, longer-range missiles like the Hyunmoo-5 could face restrictions.
South Korea is also exploring the deployment of small teams of specialists to Ukraine, comprising intelligence and tactical experts, to monitor the situation and respond to North Korea’s growing involvement. This deployment would not constitute a full-scale military operation and would not require parliamentary approval.
The potential decision to provide lethal aid to Ukraine marks a significant turning point for South Korea. It underscores Seoul’s growing concern over North Korea’s military alliance with Russia and its commitment to supporting Ukraine’s defence. This decision could have substantial repercussions for South Korea’s relationships with Russia, North Korea, and the wider international community. The possibility of training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, similar to the training previously provided for the K9 howitzer, could be a valuable contribution, given Ukraine’s shortage of trained pilots despite receiving F-16 fighter jets from Western allies in August. However, current production commitments to other nations, such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, could pose challenges to the immediate availability of certain weapons systems.
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